We publish our accuracy.
Every analysis carries a confidence number, and every confidence number is a claim: setups scored 70–80 should resolve favourably about three-quarters of the time. This page checks that claim against what actually happened, across every ORIN account. Nothing here is selected, smoothed or held back.
of 100 before a curve is published.
of 6 tracked.
Confidence is the model’s own number.
45 resolved outcomes, against a floor of 100. Below that floor the rates below are shown but not used: confidence stays the model’s own uncalibrated number and every analysis says so. Fitting a curve to a sample this size would make the number worse while making it sound better, which is the exact trade this page exists to refuse.
| Confidence band | It happened | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| <50 | 46.4% | n=28 |
| 50–60 | 50.0% | n=2 |
| 60–70 | 25.0% | n=8 |
| 70–80 | 40.0% | n=5 |
| 80–90 | 0.0% | n=2 |
| 90+ | — | n=0 |
Sign in to see the same table computed from your own resolved trades. Yours is what actually calibrates the confidence you are shown — the platform curve above is the anchor it starts from before you have a record of your own.
- The top table is every ORIN account pooled. It crosses markets, timeframes and rule packs, which is what makes it reachable at all — and also why it carries a lower evidence floor than a claim about one market would. Your own table is computed separately and is never folded into it.
- Only taken trades count. A setup you passed on carries a counterfactual, not an outcome, and mixing the two would publish a hit rate for a population that includes trades nobody was in.
- A resolved outcome means the market reached the stop or the first target. Ambiguous bars that span both resolve as the stop — assuming the good fill is how backtests flatter themselves.
- Misses stay on the page. A band that reads worse than it claimed is the reason the page is worth reading.
ORIN grades setups; it never tells you to buy or sell. Decision support, not advice. Past resolution rates are a record of what happened, not a promise about what will. How these cells are computed and floored is documented in the methodology, the grade’s nine factors are published in the engine write-up, and the setup families being tracked live in the Trade Playbook.