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Verdicts, grades and signals

The verdict panel, in reading order

The verdict reads in decision order rather than sales order: invalidation first — the price at which the thesis is wrong — then the grade and its calibrated confidence, the confluence breakdown, the risk arithmetic, the thesis, scenarios, and coaching ranked by where the score has the most headroom.

Why invalidation leads

The first thing on the panel is the level that makes the read wrong. Every other product in this category leads with the opportunity, and leading with the opportunity is how a reader forms a view before they have seen the cost of being mistaken.

The ordering is enforced as a template rule rather than left to whoever lays out the next panel: invalidation renders before any target, everywhere it appears, including inside the compressed Quick Read overlay.

Grade and confidence

Two numbers sit together here and they answer different questions. The grade says how much of the evidence checklist agrees with itself. The confidence says what happened to comparable setups when their outcomes were checked. A high grade with a modest confidence is not a contradiction — it is the two questions giving their honest separate answers.

The confluence breakdown

The score decomposes into its factors, each with its weight and the signed points it contributed. A grade you disagree with can be traced to the exact factors that produced it, rather than being an opaque verdict you either accept or ignore.

The decomposition uses the same constants as the grade itself, and the round trip between them is asserted at build time — the breakdown cannot drift into describing a different calculation from the one that ran.

The risk arithmetic

Entry, stop, both targets, reward-to-risk, position size, dollar risk, and what the trade would consume of the day's loss budget. This block is absent on the signed-out demo, because it depends on an account size the visitor has never supplied.

Scenarios and coaching

Scenarios include the level at which the opposite case becomes the better read — stated as a price rather than as a hedge.

Coaching answers "what would make this an A" by ranking factors on headroom: how much weight a factor carries multiplied by how far it currently is from its ceiling. The advice is therefore about the factors where improvement would actually move the score, not the ones that happen to look worst.

Drift, caps and refusals

A live line shows how far price has moved since the read was taken, so a stale plan announces its own staleness.

Fired rule flags and data-quality caps are listed with plain-sentence reasons rather than codes.

On a no-trade verdict no levels are drawn at all. A level drawn on a price chart reads as an instruction, and a refused read has no plan to instruct anyone about. The reasoning still renders in full; only the levels are withheld.

Frequently asked

Why does a no-trade verdict draw no entry or target lines?
Deliberately. A level drawn on price reads as an instruction, and a refused read has no plan. The reasoning still renders in full — what is withheld is the set of lines that would imply a trade the engine just declined.
Why does the verdict show invalidation before the target?
Because that is decision order. The level that ends the trade determines the position size and the risk, so reading it first is what makes the target meaningful rather than merely attractive. The ordering is a template rule applied everywhere.

Updated Sep 1, 2026

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ORIN is analysis software, not investment advice. Markets carry risk of loss. Read the risk disclosure.