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Verdicts, grades and signals

Verdict states and the signal vocabulary

A verdict is in one of three states — setup, no-setup or suspended — and carries one of five signals: strong-buy, buy, no-trade, sell or strong-sell. Signals are derived deterministically from the engine’s own numbers; the language model never writes one. Every no-trade names its single deciding reason.

The three states

Suspended means the newest bar is too old to stand behind — the read is not wrong, it is simply no longer current. The product distinguishes a closed exchange from a delayed feed here, because "the market is shut" and "our data is late" are different facts and only one of them is about us.

No-setup means the read completed and refused. There are three deciding reasons: a rule pack's hard rule failed, reward-to-risk fell below 1, or the grade landed at or below the veto floor.

Setup means a plan stands.

The five signals

Signals are computed from the engine's numbers by a deterministic function. The narration layer never sees the signal and never writes one, and directive buy-or-sell language is banned from generated prose.

This separation is the point. A model that can write "strong buy" can write it for reasons that are not in the data, and no reader can tell the difference from the outside.

The strong tier

A signal is promoted to its strong form only when four conditions hold together: the grade is at least A−, calibrated confidence is at least 70, the multi-timeframe score is at least 0.5, and reward-to-risk is at least 2. Failing any one of them leaves an ordinary buy or sell, and the verdict names which condition was missed.

The higher-timeframe veto

When the charts above the graded one disagree strongly enough, the trade is refused outright rather than merely marked down.

The veto only fires when at least one higher leg was genuinely fetched, which today means crypto. For markets where higher legs are aggregated roll-ups rather than separate fetches, disagreement can discount the multi-timeframe score but can never veto — an approximation is not allowed to cast the deciding vote.

Stored versus live

The stored signal is the historical record of what was said at the time. Every surface re-derives the current one, which is why an aged read shows no-trade without its record being altered.

Frequently asked

Is a no-trade verdict an error state?
No — it is a complete answer. The read names its single deciding reason, draws no levels, and is recorded like any other. Passing on it is a decision the journal can later credit, so a refusal still earns its place in your record.
Does the higher-timeframe veto apply to stock charts?
No. The veto exists only off a genuinely fetched higher leg, which today means crypto. Equity and forex legs are aggregated roll-ups: they can discount the multi-timeframe score but never veto, because an approximation should not cast the deciding vote.

Updated Sep 1, 2026

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ORIN is analysis software, not investment advice. Markets carry risk of loss. Read the risk disclosure.